Does the Monetary Aggregate M3 the Affect on the Inflation? A Case Study of the Czech Republic, Switzerland and Israel
Liběna Černohorská, Petr Maléř
Abstract: The aim of the paper is to analyse the influence of monetary aggregate M3 on inflation in the Czech Republic, Switzerland and Israel between the years 2000 and 2017. The central banks in selected countries have not been able to fulfill their stated goal of achieving price stability. During the period under review, the selected central banks chose foreign exchange intervention as an instrument of unconventional monetary policy to achieve the set inflation target. The analysis of monetary policy in the selected countries will be determined by the long-term relationships between the M3 monetary aggregate and the inflation. Selected indicators were analyzed on quarterly data in the Czech Republic, Switzerland and Israel using the Engle - Granger cointegration test. We have found, based on the tests performed, that monetary policy in the monitored countries was not quite effective in the years 2000- 2017 because we did not confirm in our empirical analyzes the long-term relationship between the monetary aggregate M3 in relation to inflation.
Keywords: Engle-Granger Test, Foreign Exchange Intervention, Inflation, Monetary Policy, M3
JEL classification: C32, E47, E51, O24
The Influence of Customer´s Personal and Demographic Characteristics on Their Loyalty
Petr Suchánek, Simona Činčalová, Martin Prokop
Abstract: The paper deals with the influence of several personal factors on customer loyalty, which is one of the main tools of the company´s competitiveness. The aim of the article is to find out whether there is a relationship between selected personality and demographic characteristics and customer loyalty. The research was conducted on a sample of 1530 customers (final consumers) from 102 food industry companies in the Czech Republic. The research was conducted using a cross-comparison method with relevant statistical tests. Research results show that customer loyalty is related to the demographic characteristics examined (especially gender, income and education) and some personality traits (especially the approach to buying cheap things and optimism). Research shows that women are more loyal than men, then optimists and people who are not so rich that they can buy cheap things. On the contrary, with increasing income and education loyalty is rather falling.
Keywords: Customer´s Loyalty, Demographic Characteristics, Personal Characteristics, Food Industry
JEL classification: L66, M31
Does Extreme Poverty Occur in EU Countries?
Abstract: Poverty as a result of income inequality is a concern for governments in all countries, including the European Union. The question is how serious the poverty is and in which households it occurs. This paper offers the identification of households at risk of extreme poverty based on the construction of the Extreme Poverty Index. This Index combines three dimensions of poverty, reflecting trends in measuring multidimensional poverty. The first component of the index is income poverty, the second is material deprivation of households, which complements the index by a non-income perspective and reflects the real living conditions of households. The third component of the index is the low work intensity of the household. Segments of households at risk of extreme poverty are identified in a cluster analysis using primary data from EU-SILC survey. These identified households should be the target groups of the social policy activities in order to make social policy and assistance to endangered households as effective as possible. The paper provides a comparison of extreme poverty in households in the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Slovakia. The most vulnerable segment in all countries is an unemployed pre-retirement consumer living alone, but also other household groups.
Keywords: Unemployment, Extreme Poverty, Income, Material Deprivation, Social Transfers, EU-SILC
JEL classification: D31, I31, I32, P46
Fiscal Decentralization and Regional Disparities in Czechia and Slovakia: Regression Analysis at the NUTS2 and NUTS3 Level
Abstract: Connection between fiscal decentralization and regional disparities is usually explained in two different manners. Fiscal decentralization might enhance the economic growth and optimal public good provision (and by this way might reduce regional disparities) or it can contribute to the deepening of differences among poor and rich regions. However, there is a wide empirical research of this connection in the economic literature. Despite it, in Czech and Slovak related research, there is an absence of such a literature. This paper focuses on revealing the character of relationship between fiscal decentralization and regional disparities in Czechia and Slovakia on both NUTS2 and NUTS3 levels. Regional disparities increase within both countries. Additionally, estimations results are about supporting the undesirable effect of fiscal decentralization. Statistical significant positive relationship between expenditure and revenue decentralization and regional disparities is observed in both countries, while this relationship using the measurement of tax decentralization is significant and negative only in the case of Slovakia. Unfortunately, even if the inverse estimated relationship support the hypothesis about reduction of regional disparities by tax decentralization, analysis of input data shows the trend toward decreasing the tax decentralization. It contributes to higher regional disparities, too.
Keywords: Regional Disparities, Fiscal Decentralization, NUTS 2, NUTS 3
JEL classification: H71, H73, R12
Threshold Effects in Interactions Between Government Budget Imbalances, Current Account Imbalances and Business Cycle Synchronization
Abstract: The paper focuses on interactions between fiscal dynamics and current account imbalances, and their impact on business cycle synchronization in the euro area over the years 2001-2017. To join these two effects, we used panel data threshold model, which determined three intervals of current account differences and estimated separate relation between fiscal disparities and output gap disparities in each interval. If current account differences are small (1st interval), the threshold model concluded for strong positive effect of smaller budget balance differences on business cycle synchronization. Nevertheless, higher current account differences (2nd and 3rd interval) are accompanied by not significant or negative effect of budget balance differences on output gap differences, i.e. there is no effect of fiscal convergence on business cycle synchronization. As far as policy implications, if economic policies try to achieve tighter business cycles by a fiscal convergence, they need to take into account possible tools how to decrease current account imbalances as well.
Keywords: Current Account, Budget Balance, Fiscal Convergence, Business Cycle Synchronization, Euro Area, Threshold Model
JEL classification: E32, F32, F41, F44, H62
Identifying Key Determinants of Poverty in Slovakia
Abstract: The article deals with identifying key determinants of poverty in Slovakia. The two main goals of this article are to examine which factors have a significant effect on poverty and to determine the influence of relevant factors on poverty of Slovak households. A logistic regression model was used to quantify the impact of selected factors on the risk of the poverty and for probability modelling. We compared two models, using data from EU SILC 2013 and EU SILC 2016. Statistically significant differences are by the region and also by the degree of urbanization. We found that variables such as gender, age, household type, households' economic activity, marital status, education, health, and tenure status significantly affected the occurrence of poverty. According to contingency coefficients, the rate of poverty was at most influenced by the economic activity, on the other hand, the lowest rate was obtained for general health of the person at the head of the household. The obtained results are compared with the known researches in this field.
Keywords: EU SILC − European Union Statistics On Income And Living Conditions, Europe 2020, Poverty, Logistic Regression
JEL classification: R1, C31, I32
Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Expert System for Investment Analysis
Zuzana Janková, Petr Dostál
Abstract: In this paper, a higher degree of fuzzy logic type-2 fuzzy logic is presented as decision making process of investment. There is a key difference between type-2 and type-1 fuzzy logic. The application is made on the Czech stock market and is used to decide on investing in PX index stocks. The proposed type 2 fuzzy model uses the return and risk of investment instruments as input variables. The system created is able to generate aggregate models from a certain number of language rules, allowing the investor to understand the generated financial model. The use of T2FLS can lead to more realistic and accurate results than T1FLS.
Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Czech Stock Market, Fuzzy Logic, Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic, Investment Analysis, Soft Computing
JEL classification: C45, G11, G12
Management structure in the performance of Polish mutual funds: Does team spirit matter?
Abstract: This paper focuses on finding answers to two questions. The first one asks if there are any significant differences in performance between solo-managed and teammanaged funds. The second one is supposed to establish whether a management structure can be treated as a determinant of returns generated by mutual funds operating in Poland. The study was conducted on the basis of 835 annual observations, 388 of which concerned solo-managed funds and 447 – team-managed funds, in the period 2000-2017. The returns were calculated by means of a few popular measures of abnormal returns regarding the stock picking ability of fund managers. The methodological procedure consisted of four research tools which ensured a greater certainty of the statistical inference. The findings show that there are insignificant discrepancies in the performance of funds characterized by a different number of managers, yet they are noticeable in very few annual periods. The results obtained as an effect of determining the influence of a management structure on performance are statistically insignificant, which means that the examined variable is not a determinant of performance, at least as far as Polish circumstances are concerned.
Keywords: Performance, Managers, Team-Managed Funds, Solo-Managed Funds
JEL classification: G20, G23, G40
Companies Attitudes Toward Key Positions and Employees Management
Petra Horváthová, Šárka Velčovská, Lenka Kauerová
Abstract: An essential role in achieving or maintaining the competitiveness of any company is played by key employees. Therefore, businesses should pay attention to them. The article aims to identify the attitudes of companies operating in the manufacturing industry of the Moravian-Silesian region to management key positions and employees in the business environment and to present a proposal for a procedure for its effective and practical implementation and application. Data were collected on a sample of 105 enterprises. The current situation of using the management system of key positions and employees as well as the attitudes of the companies towards the implementation of the new system was evaluated, based on the results of the research. There was a low rate of use of given system in these businesses, with two thirds of companies showing an interest in implementing the new system. In order to verify the existence of statistically significant differences between the variables, Fisher's exact test was used, and the Phi and Cramer's V coefficients were also calculated. The output of the article also includes a proposal for a procedure for the implementation and application of the management of key positions and employees in practice.
Keywords: Management, Key Position, Key Employee, Process, System, Manufacturing Industry
JEL classification: M12, M50
Ethics and Integrity of the Public Administration of the
Abstract: The aim of the article is threefold: to open an academic debate in the area of public ethics and integrity in the Czech Republic, to briefly explain an effective framework inspired by the OECD work on public governance, anti-corruption initiatives and the most recent integrity strategy which underpins the governance of globalisation, and to present main features of the current situation in the Czech public administration from the ethics perspective. Public integrity aligning shared values, principles and ethical norms for upholding the public interest over private interests in the public sector is considered essential to the economic and social well-being of individuals and societies. The current situation in the Czech public administration is illustrated using results of an empirical research conducted within a research project aiming at developing a comprehensive training programme on ethics and integrity for civil servants and officials of self-administration. A survey among the civil servants and employees of self-administration is at the core of this research. Findings are interpreted in the context of the OECD integrity system and represent a basis for the design of tailor-made ethics courses and training tools.
Keywords: Ethics, Integrity, Public Administration, Ethical Codes
JEL classification: A13, D72, D73, D91, H83
New Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Evaluation Method as a Support for Investment Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Abstract: This article is motivated by real investment decision making for which uncertainty is so typical. The uncertainty can be represented by an unstable development of some characteristics of the investment instruments, or vague investor’s preferences. Moreover, the investment decision is usually made based on several criteria. To evaluate the investment instruments in a satisfactory manner, or namely to select suitable investment instrument(s), all mentioned aspects should be considered. For this purpose, a complex support tool is proposed in this paper. This fuzzy multiple criteria evaluation method uses triangular fuzzy numbers to express the element of uncertainty. It accepts a linguistically expressed importance of criteria which is very comfortable for a decision maker (investor). Linguistic terms are also transformed to the triangular fuzzy numbers based on the specified fuzzy scale. Using the concept of fuzzy sets (fuzzy numbers) provides a necessary quantification of the elements of uncertainty. The proposed method can select ‘the best’ alternative (i.e. investment instrument), to make a full ranking as well. All benefits of this fuzzy evaluation approach are illustratively demonstrated on a selected real investment decision making problem on the capital market with open unit trusts that are increasing in popularity within the Czech Republic.
Keywords: Uncertainty, Investment Decision Making, Open Unit Trust, Triangular Fuzzy Number, Vague Preferences
JEL classification: C44, G11